Analysis: The Middle East conflict has triggered a "butterfly effect," causing global market volatility to reach a 20-year high.
PANews reported on March 9th that, according to Jinshi, traders are flocking to the options market as supply disruptions caused by the conflict in Iran have led to a surge in prices for crude oil and other commodities, including natural gas, metals, and agricultural products. Implied volatility in crude oil has soared to extremely high levels as producers, airlines, and utilities engage in unprecedented hedging, while implied volatility in European natural gas has reached its highest level since 2023. The CME Group stated that its energy sector recorded a record single-day volume of over 8 million contracts last Friday. Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group, said, "This is clearly one of the biggest volatility events in the last 20 years."
The Strait of Hormuz, which typically carries about one-fifth of the world's crude oil shipments, is currently experiencing a near standstill in shipping. WTI crude oil surged 12% on Friday, marking its largest weekly gain ever at 35%. On Monday, oil prices had already climbed above $100. The UAE and Kuwait have begun reducing crude oil production, exacerbating the supply crisis. Disruptions to Middle Eastern liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments and soaring prices have also had a ripple effect on metals and fertilizer producers. The US agricultural market has also felt the shockwaves. Options traders are betting that already high corn prices will continue to rise due to rising fuel prices and fertilizer supply disruptions.
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