Market Preview: Federal Reserve Meeting, Oil Surge Past $100, and Micron (MU) Earnings

TLDR

• Federal Reserve convenes Wednesday with expectations of maintaining rates between 3.5%–3.75%, focus shifts to Powell’s commentary
• Crude oil surged past $100 per barrel following Iran conflict that has disrupted Strait of Hormuz shipping routes
• Micron Technology delivers quarterly results Wednesday following remarkable stock surge of over 300% in past year
• Major earnings releases include FedEx, Dollar Tree, Alibaba, and multiple retail companies
• Goldman Sachs forecasts Q4 oil averaging $93/barrel if Strait of Hormuz blockade continues for two months

Equity markets extended their losing streak to three consecutive weeks as escalating tensions in Iran drove crude oil to heights last witnessed during the 2022 energy emergency. The S&P 500 declined 1.6% for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 2%. The Nasdaq Composite retreated 1.3%.

Investors now face a calendar-packed week featuring a Federal Reserve policy announcement, numerous corporate earnings reports, and Nvidia’s signature developer conference.

The Federal Open Market Committee convenes Wednesday for its latest monetary policy deliberation. The benchmark federal funds rate currently stands at 3.5% to 3.75%. Market participants are nearly unanimous in expecting no change to current policy.

Chairman Jerome Powell will conduct a press briefing following the announcement. Analysts suggest this commentary could prove more significant than the rate decision itself.

Powell faces the task of addressing internal disagreements among Fed officials. One faction advocates for additional rate reductions citing employment market weakness. Another group expresses concern about potential inflation acceleration driven by surging energy costs.

This marks Powell’s penultimate scheduled press conference before his chairmanship concludes in May.

Oil and the Strait of Hormuz

The Iranian conflict has entered its third week with no resolution in sight. The Strait of Hormuz — a narrow 21-mile channel transporting approximately 14 million barrels of crude daily — continues to experience disruptions.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps has declared it will prevent “a liter of oil” from traversing the waterway.

Crude prices temporarily exceeded $100 per barrel last Sunday, marking the first such occurrence since Russia’s Ukraine invasion in 2022. After retreating to the $80 range, prices rebounded following drone attacks on critical petroleum infrastructure and production reduction announcements from Gulf nations.

Goldman Sachs projects that sustained closure of the Strait for 60 days would result in fourth quarter Brent crude averaging $93 per barrel. US West Texas Intermediate would average $89 under this scenario.

Wednesday additionally brings February’s Producer Price Index release. The January reading revealed wholesale inflation exceeded forecasts.

Micron and the Earnings Lineup

Micron Technology unveils quarterly results Wednesday. The semiconductor memory manufacturer’s shares have surged more than 300% over the previous twelve months, propelled by artificial intelligence hardware demand. Its most recent quarter showed 60% year-over-year revenue growth and exceeded analyst profit projections.

FedEx delivers earnings Thursday. The logistics giant’s stock has climbed nearly 25% year-to-date. Analysts scrutinize FedEx’s shipping metrics for economic health indicators.

Dollar Tree also announces results, offering perspective on American consumer strength. Its previous report characterized shoppers as “stretched.”

Nuclear energy firm Oklo releases earnings Tuesday. The company recently finalized an agreement with Meta to provide electricity for data center operations.

Alibaba reports Thursday alongside plans for expanded AI investment. Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer Xpeng announces Friday.

Nvidia’s GTC 2026 conference launches Monday featuring a presentation from CEO Jensen Huang.

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