Former Trump insider says 'most likely outcome' in Iran includes US return 'in 10 years'

Anthony Scaramucci, a former Trump administration official, outlined a pessimistic long-term scenario for the Iran conflict, predicting that despite military devastation, the underlying tensions driving the war will remain unresolved.

"Most likely outcome now: Iran's military is devastated. Regime survives. The Strait stays closed until both sides find a face-saving off-ramp," Scaramucci stated, characterizing the likely trajectory of the conflict.

According to Scaramucci's analysis, the war will ultimately result in a pyrrhic outcome that benefits neither side strategically. While Trump will declare victory domestically and Iran's leadership will claim resistance and defiance, the fundamental geopolitical tensions that sparked the conflict remain intact.

The ex-insider predicted several consequences flowing from this stalemate. Oil prices will eventually drop as markets adjust to the new status quo, while Iran's nuclear program will be temporarily set back without being eliminated entirely. However, he emphasized this represents no permanent resolution.

"We'll be back here in 10 years," Scaramucci concluded, suggesting the conflict's underlying causes—unresolved regional rivalry, sanctions, and nuclear proliferation concerns—will inevitably resurface.

The prediction reflects growing expert consensus that without a clear diplomatic off-ramp or decisive military outcome, the Iran war risks becoming a prolonged stalemate that exhausts resources while failing to achieve lasting strategic objectives.