Cardano (ADA) Price: Bears Are in Control — Can a Rare Buy Signal and Regulatory News Turn the Tide?

TLDR

• ADA is trading around $0.25 after falling over 7% the previous week, hovering near key support
• US-Iran tensions have dampened risk appetite across crypto markets, pushing Bitcoin and ADA lower
• Futures open interest has been falling since mid-March, and funding rates turned negative, reflecting bearish sentiment
• A rare “Black 9” TD Sequential buy signal appeared on ADA’s weekly chart on March 21, with targets at $0.32 and $0.37 if confirmed
• The SEC and CFTC jointly classified ADA as a “digital commodity” on March 17, offering regulatory clarity

Cardano (ADA) is under pressure. The token fell more than 7% last week and is now trading around $0.25, sitting close to key support levels. A mix of global tensions, weak derivatives data, and a broader market pullback is driving the bearish mood.

Escalating conflict between the US and Iran has rattled investors. Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump threatened to strike Iran’s electricity grid within 48 hours. Iran responded by warning it would target the energy and water systems of Gulf neighbors if attacked. That back-and-forth pushed investors away from riskier assets.

Bitcoin closed below $67,360 on Sunday, triggering liquidations across the market. Cardano followed suit, closing near $0.25 and continuing to trade cautiously into Monday.

Derivatives Data Paints a Bearish Picture

Cardano’s futures open interest dropped to $388.23 million on Monday. It has been falling steadily since mid-March, a sign that traders are pulling back from the market.

Funding rates have also turned negative. According to CoinGlass, ADA’s funding rate hit -0.019% on Monday, meaning short sellers are paying longs. That kind of reading typically reflects a market tilted toward bearish bets.

Technically, Cardano is trading well below its 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages, sitting at roughly $0.28 and $0.33. The Relative Strength Index sits at 41, below the midline but not at extreme levels. The MACD has dipped back below the signal line, suggesting fading momentum.

Immediate resistance sits at $0.27, with stronger resistance near $0.30. A daily close above $0.30 would start to ease the bearish pressure. On the downside, support sits at $0.24, with a major floor at $0.22. A break below $0.22 would extend the broader decline.

Positive Signals Emerge Beneath the Surface

Not everything is pointing down. On March 21, analyst Ali Martinez flagged a rare “Black 9” buy signal on ADA’s weekly chart using the TD Sequential indicator. The signal suggests selling pressure may be running out. For it to be confirmed, ADA needs to close the week above $0.23. Price targets from that breakout sit at $0.32 and $0.37.

The Cardano development team also released Node version 10.7.0, a key update that lays the groundwork for the next protocol upgrade. It includes improvements to Plutus, Cardano’s smart contract platform, through several Cardano Improvement Proposals focused on execution speed.

On March 17, the SEC and CFTC jointly classified ADA as a “digital commodity,” giving developers and financial firms more legal clarity when building in the US market.

The Midnight privacy sidechain, developed by Input Output Global, is expected to launch on mainnet this week.

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