Is the "final shakeout" before the next BTC bull market is coming?

Author: Ali Charts

Compiled by: Yuliya, PANews

If you want to accurately determine when a bear market ends and a bull market begins, you must look at the 3-day chart. This timeframe is the best observation point for Bitcoin's macro structure. It is more agile than the weekly chart but more reliable than the daily chart.

Historically, since 2014, there has been a specific signal that marks the "absolute bottom" of each major cycle: the crossover between the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 200-day simple moving average.

Although the name sounds daunting, history shows that this "crossover" is actually a golden opportunity for long-term investors.

The history of the "final drop"

Each time these two lines cross on the 3-day chart, it foreshadows the final pullback before the start of a new bull market.

2014 Cycle: Before the crossover in December, Bitcoin had already fallen 72% from its all-time high. Just 23 days later, the golden opportunity arrived, and Bitcoin experienced its final 52% drop, hitting the absolute bottom of a new bull market.

2018 Cycle: After a 67% drop from the top, a crossover occurred in November. Just 33 days later, we saw the final 50% capitulation sell-off, marking a golden opportunity for long-term investors.

2022 Cycle: Prices had already fallen 50% before the crossover in May. A full 33 days later, the market dropped another 45%, providing an excellent buying opportunity. However, another lower low formed 156 days later, completing the bear market structure and opening the door to the next bull market.

Where are we now?

After reaching its high in October 2025, Bitcoin has experienced a 52% pullback. On February 27, 2026, we saw another 3-day SMA crossover. As of today, we have been in this signal for exactly 30 days.

If history repeats itself, then in the next 3 to 6 days, we will likely enter the "final accumulation period" of this cycle.

Strategic buying zone

The eventual "range-bound market" will be a wonderful gift for those aspiring to build life-changing investments. Based on these historic 40% to 50% resets following crossovers, we are focusing on two main accumulation zones:

• Target 1: $40,000 (standard 30% reset from current level)
• Target 2: $30,000 (completely eliminate 50% of the speculative bubble)

Structurally, this pattern has historically coincided with the last major downtrend before the formation of a generational macroeconomic bottom.

This doesn't mean that a sharp drop is absolutely certain, but it reminds us that a "century-long clearance sale" may be just around the corner.

If prices do fall to these levels, don't panic. This is a clear signal that the conditions for the next super bull market are fully ripe.

The countdown to a new round of explosive growth has already begun.