MOSCOW, RUSSIA – 2022/09/23: A truck blocks the highway from the Russian city of Samara to the Kazakh city of Oral. A traffic jam formed near the border crossing checkpoint. Stuck in their cars for days, truck drivers started blocking passage for light vehicles that attempted to cross the border around the queue. Some people abandoned their cars and walked around 15-20 kilometers to the border crossing checkpoint. (Photo by Vlad Karkov/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)
SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images
Since mid-September, thousands of Chinese trucks have jammed Kazakhstan’s border with Russia, slowing the flow of dual-use goods from Asia that sustain Russia’s defense industry.
Amid warming rhetoric from U.S President Donald Trump toward Kyiv and a surge in Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries, geopolitical maneuvering across Eurasia is shifting again. Russia’s refinery output is buckling under pressure, with Bloomberg reporting on Oct. 15 that seaborne fuel exports dropped to their lowest levels since the invasion, just 1.88 million barrels a day.
Border Gridlock Deepens as Kazakhstan Tightens Checks
According to Lenta.ru, around 2,500 trucks have piled up at checkpoints between Kazakhstan and Russia, many carrying electronics, drone components and Western-branded goods that could fall under export restrictions. Kazakh customs officials have intensified inspections of cargo suspected of being used to circumvent sanctions.
The Russian outlet Kommersant noted on Oct. 2 that the traffic jams have been growing since mid-September as both sides ramp up inspections. Maxim Emelin, a logistics executive, told Kommersant that the gridlock could reflect a broader policy shift from Kazakhstan. “It’s safe to say this isn’t a temporary glitch,” he said, “but more likely a new reality – tighter controls and greater compliance with Western sanctions.”
Kommersant also cited a source in the trucking industry who estimated the backlog at around 7,500 vehicles, suggesting the disruption is far deeper than early reports indicated.
The delays began in mid-September, when Kazakhstan started screening shipments to Russia and Belarus more rigorously. What once caused minor holdups has turned into weeklong queues. EUToday reported that up to 99 percent of trucks carrying sensitive goods now face intensive checks, as officials monitor a crisis that could reshape trade between China, Kazakhstan, and Russia, and the flow of dual-use goods across the region.
Security analyst Jason Jay Smart told me in an interview that “Kazakhstan is finally enforcing sanctions because it sees the cost of helping Russia rising fast.” Smart said Kazakhstan’s growing dependence on Western finance is shaping its policy choices.
Not all analysts agree that sanctions are the only cause. Maximilian Hess, a fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, told me that such trade spats are not unusual and could stem from routine bilateral frictions rather than stricter enforcement.
The trade disruption comes as President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev seeks closer ties with Washington while avoiding direct confrontation with Moscow. According to The Times of Central Asia on Sept. 22, the United States and Kazakhstan finalized a $4.2 billion locomotive deal, the largest of its kind, following a call between Trump and Tokayev.
WASHINGTON, D.C. – JANUARY 16: U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a joint press conference with President Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan in the Roosevelt Room of the White House January 16, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Olivier Douliery-Pool/Getty Images)
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Last year, Deputy Prime Minister Serik Zhumangarin told Bloomberg that Kazakhstan “won’t blindly follow the sanctions” if they harm domestic industries, insisting the government would “put its own economic interests first.” Yet as Western scrutiny intensifies and the cost of aiding Moscow rises, Astana’s approach has shifted from quiet resistance to cautious compliance.
Citing a Russian political analyst, Lenta.ru noted that Astana faces Western pressure to monitor parallel imports but will likely stop short of open defiance toward Russia.
Fuel Shock Across Central Asia
Russia’s refinery disruptions and export bans are now rippling through Central Asia. Following months of intensive drone strikes, Moscow’s fuel curbs have triggered shortages and price spikes across the region, according to Radio Free Europe. Tajikistan, which imports nearly all its fuel from Russia, has seen gasoline prices soar to around $1.30 per liter, the highest in the region.
RFE/RL highlighted that Uzbekistan turned to Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to diversify supplies, while Kazakhstan imposed a temporary export ban to secure domestic demand. Only Turkmenistan remains largely insulated, benefiting from vast reserves and state control over production. According to The Caspian Post, Kyrgyzstan is asking Moscow for more cheap fuel, including an extra 100,000 tons of diesel and 60,000 tons of jet fuel, as the two sides negotiate next year’s energy quotas. Kyrgyzstan is dependent on Moscow for over 90% of its fuel.
But as Russia struggles to meet its own fuel needs, Central Asian countries have growing reason to reassess their energy dependence on Moscow. If Ukraine maintains its momentum, neighboring states may begin recalibrating their ties in response to Russia’s waning regional influence.
A Balancing Act Between Moscow And The West
The Kyiv Independent reported that during a visit to Astana on Sept. 16, 2024, Tokayev told former German Chancellor Olaf Scholz that “Russia cannot be defeated in the military sense.” Throughout 2025, Ukraine sharpened its technological edge, waging a drone campaign aimed at crippling the oil revenues that fund Russia’s war.
Smart added that “Ukraine’s drone strikes have humiliated Russia by proving its skies are no longer safe. Central Asian leaders see a fading power that can’t protect itself, let alone anyone else.”
According to UNITED24 Media, Tokayev also met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in New York during the 80th UN General Assembly in September 2025. Both leaders symbolically spoke in English as Zelensky thanked Kazakhstan for supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty.
Despite early hopes that Russia’s full-scale invasion would push Kazakhstan closer to the West, Moscow’s grip has only tightened. Tokayev has made symbolic gestures of independence, such as speaking Kazakh at official events, but remains heavily reliant on Moscow. Russia helped him stay in power during the 2022 unrest, and trade between the two countries has since expanded. That same year, former president Dmitry Medvedev even called Kazakhstan an “artificial state.”
While Russia’s first president Boris Yeltsin once hinted that Moscow could revisit borders with former Soviet republics like Kazakhstan and Ukraine, Tokayev has charted a cautious course, refusing to recognize Russia’s annexations, abstaining from pro-Russian UN votes, and sending humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
For the Kremlin, the gridlock is another reminder that sanctions are eroding the logistics lifelines Moscow depends on. As it leans on Central Asia to offset Western pressure, the long lines of stranded trucks show how even its allies are beginning to weigh the risks of staying too close.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidkirichenko/2025/10/15/thousands-of-trucks-from-china-are-stuck-at-kazakhstans-border-with-russia/
