Trump keeps making the midterms worse for Republicans

Although the Democratic Party continues to suffer from weak approval ratings in polls, their strategists are feeling cautiously optimistic about the 2026 midterms. That's because Democratic candidates have enjoyed a series of victories in recent special elections — including some in GOP-leaning areas of Texas and Florida, two states that Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024 — and the president has low approval ratings on everything from the economy to the war in Iran.

Veteran GOP strategist and consultant Stuart Stevens, a Never Trump conservative, believes that the Democratic Party's unpopularity isn't the main factor in the 2026 midterms. If Democrats can make the midterms a referendum on Trump, Stevens contends during in his appearances on MS NOW, they should perform well in November.

MS NOW host and former Washington Post columnist Catherine Rampell, in a scathing article published by the conservative website The Bulwark in early April, argues that Trump is doing everything imaginable to make the midterms a disaster for his party.

"I'm not saying Donald Trump is trying to lose the midterms," Rampell writes, "but if he were, would he really be doing anything differently? In recent days, the president has practically giftwrapped affordability-related oppo ads to Democrats via at least four channels — his war and the resultant rising costs; his tone-deaf comments brushing off Americans' concerns about rising prices; his proposal for even more safety-net cuts; and the gilded, marble-walled, money-making totems to Trump himself. Any one of these things might be seen as political suicide in an election year. But all of them together, at once?"

Rampell continues, "It really starts to look like a deliberate plan to undermine his own party. Dems have a unique opportunity to, accurately, blame rising costs on Trump right now, and to shame him for his indifference to — at times, derision of — the pain he has caused. Will they take it?"

During the United States' 1992 presidential race, Democratic strategist James Carville popularized the phrase "It's the economy, stupid." And the economy, Rampell emphasizes in her Bulwark article, will be a major factor in this year's midterms.

"Americans are big mad about the economy," Rampell writes. "So mad that they now miss the Biden economy, which — trust me when I tell you — they absolutely detested…. While some of this Debbie-Downerism may be 'bad vibes,' real economic conditions do appear to be deteriorating. New data show that in February, we had the lowest level of hiring since April 2020: i.e., when the economy was shuttered due to COVID. Wholesale prices rose sharply in February as well. And those metrics were captured before Trump decided to start a war in the Middle East, which is making everything worse."

The Iran war, Rampell notes, "hasn’t merely forced an oil crisis" but rather, is promoting an "everything crisis" because of "the many supply chains disrupted by" the Strait of Hormuz's "closure."

"Disruptions to fertilizer shipments and higher diesel prices are already raising food input costs," Rampell warns. "Fuel surcharges for shipments are lifting grocery prices, too…. These disruptions won't merely lead to higher prices; they are also boosting the risk of recession. That's because higher energy costs, among other rising input costs, and lingering uncertainty effectively serve as a kind of tax on nearly all economic activity."

Rampell adds, "Already, Goldman Sachs estimates that the war is costing about 10,000 jobs a month. Trump's other misguided economic policies — on trade, immigration, the Fed, etc. — are also compounding the warflation….. While Trump is also giving us higher prices, he is also taking away programs to cushion the blow of those higher prices."

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