US to maintain Russian oil sanctions, impacting crude supply

EU’s Sefcovic said the US will not ease Russian oil sanctions further, and odds on crude oil hitting $90 by June have increased by 15%.

Market reaction

The Crude Oil Predictions for June market, which resolves if oil hits $90 by the end of June, is the most directly affected contract. With 67 days left, traders are pricing in sustained sanctions and tighter supply. In the Crude Oil Price Predictions market, the likelihood of WTI reaching $160 in April has also increased, as traders expect continued upward pressure from restricted Russian exports and ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Why it matters

Sustained US sanctions on Russian oil remove a major source of potential supply relief. If Russian barrels stay off the market or heavily discounted into limited buyers, global benchmarks face upward pressure, particularly heading into summer demand season.

What to watch

Current market conditions show no significant volume, and there have been no trades in the last 24 hours, which suggests shifting expectations haven’t yet translated into firm positioning. Given the market’s historical volatility, that could change quickly as new data comes in.

For those considering a contrarian play, a YES share for the June crude oil price at 90¢ is a bet on supply constraints tightening significantly. That requires sustained geopolitical friction and no sanctions relief.

Watch for statements from Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister and Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister, as any shift in their stance could move market expectations. EIA updates or new OPEC announcements would also provide directional signals.

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