Home Depot (HD) Stock: What Wall Street Expects from Earnings Today

TLDR

• Home Depot reports Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings on May 19, before market open
• Revenue consensus is $41.5 billion, up 4.2% year over year
• EPS estimate of $3.42 represents a 3.9% decline from the year-ago period
• Options traders are pricing in a ~5% move, with a $15 straddle implying a range of $282.70–$312.40
• Wall Street holds a Strong Buy consensus with an average price target of $412.26, implying 38.6% upside

Home Depot reports Q1 fiscal 2026 results on May 19, before the opening bell.

The Home Depot, Inc., HD

The stock is currently trading around $297.55, down 22.6% over the past three months, underperforming the S&P 500’s 9.1% gain over the same stretch.

Wall Street expects revenue of $41.5 billion for the quarter, a 4.2% increase year over year. EPS is forecast at $3.42, which would represent a 3.9% decline from the same period last year.

Home Depot has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 1.16%. Last quarter, it beat estimates by 7.9%.

This time around, the setup is less clean. Home Depot carries an Earnings ESP of -0.34% and a Zacks Rank #3, which does not meet the threshold for a predicted beat.

What’s Supporting the Quarter

Pro demand continues to be a bright spot. Customers using Home Depot’s delivery, project management, and trade-credit tools are spending more across categories.

The GMS acquisition and SRS business expansion are also expected to contribute, supporting the company’s push into the professional contractor market.

Repair-and-maintenance demand got a seasonal lift from severe winter weather across parts of the U.S., with categories like roofing, plumbing, and electrical expected to see stronger activity.

Management also flagged AI-enabled project management tools and order tracking systems as driving better engagement and conversion rates.

Margin Pressure Is the Key Watch

Gross margin is forecast to contract around 90 basis points year over year, landing near 32.9% for the quarter. Operating income is expected to fall about 4%, with the operating margin declining 100 basis points to 12.2%.

Management had already guided for first-half gross margins to drop roughly 50 basis points due to acquisition-related effects. SRS faced aggressive pricing conditions following weak roofing demand, and that pressure is expected to carry into Q1.

EPS performance is guided down mid-single digits year over year, weighed by acquisition costs, expense timing, and margin headwinds.

The bigger drag remains the housing market. Elevated mortgage rates and low housing turnover are keeping large discretionary renovation projects off the table for many consumers. Management stated the company has “not yet seen a catalyst for an inflection in housing activity.”

Customers are leaning toward repair-and-maintenance work rather than major remodels, which limits upside in higher-margin project categories.

On valuation, HD trades at a forward P/E of 19.65x, above the industry average of 18.78x but below the S&P 500’s 22.07x.

Options traders are pricing in a move of roughly 5% following earnings. The at-the-money $297.50 straddle is priced at about $14.87, implying a post-earnings range of $282.70 to $312.40.

Put activity near the money is slightly heavier than calls, particularly at the $297.50 and $300 strikes, suggesting some traders are hedging for downside.

Despite the near-term caution, Wall Street remains broadly positive. Analysts carry a Strong Buy consensus on HD, based on 17 Buys and 4 Holds over the past three months. The average price target sits at $412.26, implying upside of 38.6% from current levels.

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