After a successful coup installed Alan Peter Cayetano as Senate president, his new majority began peddling the narrative that the chaos in the Senate is linked to attempts to amend or revise the 1987 Constitution.

Cayetano brought it up in a press conference on May 18, when various huddles were occurring at the Senate to try to form a new majority that would immediately oust him.

“The events in the last few months were also intentional to weaken the Senate, because they will revive constitutional change, except this time around, they want a regional Senate,” he said.

No coup has materialized against him, and by Monday, May 25, Cayetano will have held the post for at least 14 days — enough to avoid the humiliating distinction of presiding over the shortest Senate presidency in Philippine history. (The record that currently stands is at 13 days.) But Senator Imee Marcos, Cayetano’s ally in the 13-member majority bloc, continues to double down on the charter change narrative.

“They really want to reclaim the Senate leadership because constitutional assembly is apparently at stake there. Their problem is that they could lose in the Senate impeachment trial, and if Vice President Sara Duterte wins in 2028, then they’re finished. So now the discussion is to push through with constituent assembly, amend the Constitution, add three years to the terms of incumbent lawmakers, and even extend the President’s term until 2031,” Senator Marcos told ANC’s Headstart.

There are various reasons why this narrative sounds like a logic-defying conspiracy theory.

Timing

It is a basic assumption in Philippine politics that the president’s grip on power weakens after the midterms.

This is because politicians set their eyes on the next top prize — the next presidential elections.

Even former president Rodrigo Duterte, whose administration-backed senators crushed the opposition in the 2019 midterms, dropped his federalism and charter change agenda in the succeeding State of the Nation Address.

The Ferdinand Marcos Jr. administration, on the other hand, had a dismal showing in the midterms, a vote, which in the Philippine context, is always seen as a referendum on the sitting president. The politicians he backed didn’t top the senatorial race, and a few expected shoo-ins (Bong Revilla, Abby Binay) failed to enter the Magic 12 on election day.

Marcos has not entirely lost his political capital, but with too many battles on his plate, he has to choose which fights are worth waging. These days, that fight is the impeachment of Vice President Sara Duterte.

No House effort

Cayetano, in his May 18 press conference, even unearthed the past rift between the Senate and the House.

“The attack on the Senate actually started in 2023, when they wanted to abolish the Senate,” Cayetano said. “To do that, part of the enticement is term extension and regional Senate.”

“I don’t take it against anyone, of thinking about political reforms whether their motive is good or not. But the people are suffering,” he added.

There was indeed an apparent effort from the House side to push for charter change in the first half of the Marcos presidency.

It was an ambitious push — some House lawmakers admitted having knowledge of a timetable to conduct a charter change-related plebiscite before Marcos’ SONA in July 2024. The House appeared to have pushed for a people’s initiative route, with signature campaigns already underway in numerous provinces.

At the time, the petitions circulating nationwide had sought to amend the Constitution to allow the House and the Senate to vote as one when a motion to form a constituent assembly is called. In that scenario, the House can force the Senate’s hand, as the 24-member Senate is essentially outnumbered by the 300-plus-member House.

The lay of the land, however, has changed after the midterms, and the charter change agenda has fizzled in the House.

There were resolutions on the formation of a constitutional convention that were filed separately in 2025 by Deputy Speaker Ronaldo Puno and his National Unity Party colleagues, as well as Deputy Speaker Paolo Ortega and his “Young Guns” fellows, but they have languished.

The constitutional amendments committee also hasn’t ramped up hearings on the matter — it has only met once this year. Its chairperson, Cagayan de Oro 2nd District Representative Rufus Rodriguez, is also not necessarily the most solid ally of the administration, having raised concerns about the House impeachment proceedings against the Vice President in the past (although he still later voted to impeach her).

Senior Deputy Speaker Ferdinand Hernandez also quashed speculations that there is an ongoing effort in the House to pursue charter change for the purpose of extending Marcos’ term, or the term of House members.

“Such claims are baseless, speculative, and frankly preposterous,” Hernandez told Rappler. “The House leadership is fully focused on addressing urgent national concerns and advancing priority measures that directly impact the welfare of the Filipino people.”

“The public deserves sobriety and responsibility from its leaders, especially during periods of political transition and institutional adjustments. We should not create unnecessary uncertainty by attributing motives or agendas that simply do not exist,” he added.

Senate in disarray

The political realities in the Senate are likewise unfavorable to any push for charter change.

This is the most fractured that the Senate has been in recent history: one side has 13 members (with one now an absentee fugitive), and the other side has 11.

The Constitution says that any amendments or revisions to the Constitution needs the support of three-fourths of all members of Congress.

While there is a debate on whether or not it means that the Senate and the House should vote as separate units, the tensions in the upper chamber make it impossible for any group to muster 18 votes to concretize a charter change initiative. Senators Raffy Tulfo and Ping Lacson have also already denied discussing any plans to convene a constitutional assembly.

It is known that the Senate is a breeding ground for politicians with presidential ambitions. As the 2028 elections near, why would senators support any plan to extend the term of Marcos, when they can have Malacañang for themselves?

One high-ranking staff of a senator speaking with Rappler on condition of anonymity explained it best: it appears to be a “false-flag operation.”

“You create a scenario or topic to discuss a different agenda,” Rappler’s source said. “What they’re doing now is to divert attention from their weakening Senate majority.”

“They create their own narratives. It’s a battle of narratives.” – Rappler.com