Ethereum (ETH) Price: A Rare Monthly Buy Signal Just Flashed — Here’s What Happened Next Last Time

TLDR

• ETH has rallied over 5% in 24 hours, reclaiming the $1,650 support level
• More than $92 million in ETH short positions were liquidated, fueling the rebound
• Spot ETF flows remain negative at -$358.3 million since June 17, showing weak institutional conviction
• A rare TD Sequential monthly buy signal has flashed — the same signal preceded 235% and 182% rallies in prior cycles
• Analyst Ted Pillows says ETH must reclaim $1,700–$1,750 to avoid a drop back toward yearly lows

Ethereum has bounced more than 5% in the past 24 hours, pushing back above the $1,650 level after weeks of steady selling pressure. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has now gained 8.05% over the past week, though it remains well below the $2,000 support it lost earlier in 2026.

The recovery was partly driven by a wave of forced liquidations. Over $92 million in ETH short positions were wiped out as the price moved higher quickly, triggering a short squeeze. Across the broader crypto market, more than $475 million in positions were liquidated in the same 24-hour window.

Ethereum’s derivatives market also picked up. ETH futures volume rose nearly 29% to $43.4 billion, while open interest climbed above $22.8 billion. Options volume jumped nearly 57% to $915 million. Rising open interest alongside rising price suggests fresh capital is entering the market, not just shorts closing out.

Funding rates have stayed positive, meaning bullish traders are paying a premium to hold long positions. That is a sign of short-term confidence in the trade.

Monthly Buy Signal Raises Eyebrows

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez flagged on X that July opened with a buy signal on the monthly timeframe from the TD Sequential indicator. The same signal appeared in September 2022 and March 2025. After those signals, ETH rallied 235% and 182% respectively. Martinez’s post has drawn attention given the timing of ETH’s current bounce from the $1,549 level, which lines up with the -1.0σ band on Ethereum’s MVRV extreme deviation pricing model.

That said, spot Ethereum flows tell a different story. Since June 17, Ethereum spot ETFs have recorded net outflows of $358.3 million, pointing to weak conviction among larger investors.

Key Price Levels to Watch

Analyst Ted Pillows posted on X that ETH is back above $1,600 but needs to reclaim the $1,700–$1,750 range to confirm any real upside. Without that, he said ETH risks falling back toward yearly lows.

On the chart, the next major resistance sits at $1,700, followed by the $1,800–$1,850 zone where the 50-day moving average is also hovering. To the downside, a drop below $1,600 could lead to a retest of the $1,550 support level.

Whale activity has also drawn attention. Prominent crypto investor Machi Big Brother reportedly increased ETH exposure after cutting positions in several NFT assets, adding to speculation that larger players see current prices as an entry point.

ETH is trading near $1,650 as of July 2, 2026, with the $1,700 level as the immediate test for bulls.

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