Microsoft could hit $5 trillion in market value by 2026, up from $3.59 trillion now
Microsoft is proving it can stand strong in artificial intelligence on its own, even while keeping its OpenAI ties. Analysts think this independence push could take the company to $5 trillion in value next year.
The tech giant sits at $3.59 trillion right now and is expected to cross the $5 trillion line in 2026 as AI hits its next big growth wave.
Things kicked off in 2019 when Microsoft put $1 billion into Sam Altman’s OpenAI. That bet got Microsoft early access to advanced AI models before its rivals could get their hands on them. OpenAI got the computing power and cash it needed to build and launch its AI products. Microsoft’s put in about $13 billion total now, something CEO Satya Nadella confirmed recently.
OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar said that her company “had really been funded largely by Microsoft.” She said high computing demand is the “foundation” for AI’s next phase and they’ll likely keep working with outside partners like Microsoft.
Bill Gates, who co-founded Microsoft, said he’s “thrilled that Microsoft is making those investments.” He noted AI is growing at a “rapid rate” but there’s still “a great deal of uncertainty there.” Gates thinks the technology will “get extremely powerful” in three to five years, putting Microsoft in a strong position as a “competitor.”
OpenAI’s worth $500 billion now, with Microsoft holding about 27% after they reworked their deal in late October as reported by Cryptopolitan. But experts told Yahoo Finance that Microsoft’s future doesn’t depend on its OpenAI stake, even though Altman calls it “the largest nonprofit ever.”
Microsoft weaves AI into every product line
Microsoft’s threaded AI through everything it does, Azure cloud, Office apps, developer tools, and products like Bing and Edge. Copilot is the biggest example. It’s in Microsoft 365, Windows, and GitHub Copilot.
Logan Brown from Soxton.AI said that Microsoft’s setup is different from competitors.
A Microsoft rep said the company’s watching seven trends in 2026 as it goes after a bigger piece of the AI market—things like boosting human capabilities, better safeguards for AI agents, and closing health care gaps.
Analysts don’t agree on how much OpenAI matters to Microsoft anymore. RBC’s Rishi Jaluria says Microsoft got a “multiyear head start” in AI from its early OpenAI bet, which gave it IP rights, better pricing, and research access.
OpenAI’s financial upside is smaller than investors might think. Microsoft owns 27% but doesn’t record OpenAI profits on its books, just its share of losses. The real benefit comes from the stake growing in value, which only matters if OpenAI goes public or starts making serious money.
Gil Luria from DA Davidson figured out that AI work is just 17% of Microsoft’s total Azure revenue. Even more telling—revenue from reselling OpenAI’s models is only 6% of that, while about 75% comes from Azure AI, Microsoft’s own infrastructure and services, “considering OpenAI is helping Microsoft generate revenue elsewhere,” Luria said.
The revised deal in October gave both companies room to breathe. Microsoft gave up its “right of first refusal” but kept long-term IP rights through 2032, including AGI rights, plus good pricing on APIs. This matters because Microsoft gets paid whenever business apps use the OpenAI API, whether it’s Salesforce’s Agentforce or ServiceNow’s Now Assist.
Microsoft can work with other AI model makers now, especially Anthropic. Last November, Microsoft said it would invest $5 billion in Anthropic, which agreed to buy $30 billion in Azure computing. Microsoft’s already using Anthropic in Office 365, where Anthropic’s models beat OpenAI in some tasks.
Just recently, Microsoft announced a $17.5 billion investment in India over four years for its AI plans.
Experts say Microsoft’s big advantage for the next decade is how wide its AI reach goes. RBC’s Jaluria points to Azure’s training work, GitHub Copilot for developers, and AI in Office apps. Microsoft’s LinkedIn and Activision Blizzard gaming also have AI money-making potential.
Analysts think agentic AI, AI agents that can handle multi-step work, might be Microsoft’s next breakthrough. They expect Microsoft to lead here alongside ServiceNow and Salesforce.
Is Microsoft overbuilding?
The optimism doesn’t wipe out Microsoft’s AI risks. Overbuilding is a real concern. Microsoft said before it would spend $80 billion on AI infrastructure through fiscal 2025.
Investors are watching how much Microsoft’s spending closely. If AI demand drops or competing models get way better than GPT, Ader warns Microsoft might look like it “bought a Ferrari when a Prius would’ve done.”
Market mood is another big risk. “If AI doesn’t deliver,” Ader said, “Microsoft will be caught up in a negative AI trade,” even if the company’s fundamentals stay solid.
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