Whales began to sell amid the approach of Cardano to $1
Since the end of last week, the Cardano altcoin has been retreating. During this time, it has lost more than 6% in value, but still holds in the top 10 digital currencies.
Pressing intensified due to the activation of whale wallets holding more than 1 million ADA. A cohort of large investors has begun to take profits in the region of $0.92.
As a result, the crypto could not reach the psychological mark of $1. This barrier is unlikely to be overcome in the near future, given the fact that wait-and-see sentiments dominate the camp of traders.
On the MEXC exchange exchange the ADA rate over the past 24 hours dropped 2.86% to 0.8167 USDT. At the end of August, the local peak for the coin was $0.959, and in early September it fell to $0.783.
This week ADA was able to rise above $0.80 and is trying to make this level fundamental. If a zone of powerful support is formed here, then it can be the starting point for a new crypto race.
1. ADA whale reserves fall to near one-month low
The whales have been selling Cardano since the end of August, from this moment the crypto is losing ground in the spot market.
The ADA coin dropped the bottom at $0.78 on the MEXC exchange MEXC at the very beginning of September. The relative strength index RSI after such a strong failure of the coin was in the oversold zone.
Then ADA was able to improve the situation by jumping above $0.80, but the pressure remains, and in the coming days it is unlikely that a change in trend is possible.
The rally was exhausted due to the activation of large holders of digital currency. Addresses with a balance of 1 million to 10 million coins staged a reset at a time when Cardano was testing values around $0.92.
Over the past seven days whales have sold about 30 million ADA. As a result, their reserves decreased to 5.57 billion ADA - this is the lowest level since mid-August (according to Santiment).
The whale swim provoked the fall of the crypt. However, its quick rebound above $0.80 suggests that most traders in the current cycle are not interested in a long-term retreat. Holding positions at this level creates conditions for the formation of a zone of strong crypto support here.
But we can not exclude a negative scenario in which the failure of the altcoin to $0.57-0.51 is possible. A long bearish trend will return to the market if Cardano, as a result of a new reset, cannot stay at $0.70.
The rate on perpetual swaps on MEXC is still in the black, despite the fact that total interest in Cardano futures over the past 24 hours decreased by 2.34% to $691.4 million (according to Coinalyze).
The weakening of interest in the futures market indicates a change in the tactics of traders who decided to take a pause after aggressive sales at the turn of August-September.
2. Negativity in social networks accelerated the achievement of the local bottom
Social networks are one of the main reference points for traders to assess the situation in the cryptocurrency market.
When Telegram, X, Reddit and 4Chat most posts contain negative forecasts, then, as a rule, the digital currency has already found the bottom. After a short consolidation, the asset begins to restore its position and can even demonstrate aggressive growth.
If, on the contrary, positive sentiments dominate in social networks, and users expect a new rise in crypto, then we should expect its quick correction, since on the HYIP the coin reaches a local peak. After that, it falls due to sales within the framework of profit taking.
In August, against the background of Cardano's breakthrough above $0.90, users focusing on the bullish scenario became more active on social networks. As a result, the altcoin began to retreat.
However, at the end of last month, users reacted negatively to the fall of ADA, according to Santiment.
You can compare the change in the Cardano rate on the MEXC exchange exchange over the past few weeks with a reversal of sentiment on social networks. The negative was the strongest in five months, but after that the ADA rate strengthened by about 5%.
Those traders who did not succumb to panic and did not sell the crypto were in a winning position. At the end of this week, the altcoin began to gradually strengthen, its rate exceeded $0.82 and now it is trying to overcome resistance, which will increase as it approaches the psychological mark of $0.90, analysts say.
3. Institutionals can help Cardano soar to $1.5
Users of the popular betting platform Polymarket expect the launch of spot crypto funds Cardano-ETF in the US.
The probability of such an instrument appearing on the US stock market in 2025 is estimated at 87%. At the beginning of this year, the chances of issuing an ETF on Cardano were only 21%.
Bloomberg strategists believe that the probability of approving an ETF application for Cardano is 75%.
Investment company Grayscale in August applied for the launch of an altcoin-focused trust in Delaware. According to experts, the financial giant took the first step towards the deployment of a spot crypto fund ETF.
Then he sent an S-1 application to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). It is unlikely that the regulator will decide on a quick legalization of the new instrument. Most likely, it will take a pause, but at the end of 2025 or early next year, the Cardano-ETF may appear on the US stock market.
The release of a spot crypto fund will accelerate the institutional adoption of the digital currency. Large capital received a channel to test its capabilities.
Strengthening ADA support from investment companies will create conditions for a new rally. In the medium term, the coin will be able to gain a foothold above $1.5, this trend is indicated by the improvement of its technical and fundamental indicators.
Recall that Cardano was at a historic high in early September 2021. Crypta reached $3.10, now it is trading almost 73% below this level, but still holds in the top 10 digital currencies.
Disclaimer: This information is not investment, tax, legal, financial, accounting, advisory or any other related services advice, nor is it advice to buy, sell or hold any assets. MEXC Training provides information for reference purposes only and is not investment advice. Please ensure that you fully understand all risks and exercise caution when investing. The platform is not responsible for users' investment decisions.
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