Trump’s oil crisis not yet 'apocalyptic' — but causing major 'whiplash' for consumers

The U.S. is more insulated from President Donald Trump's global oil supply catastrophe than most other nations, according to a new report from Axios, but even though things are not yet "apocalyptic," it still "feels awful" for everyday consumers who are sure to drive the direction of upcoming elections.

In a report published Friday morning, Axios broke down some of the reasons why consumers are feeling the sting of higher prices, while other major indicators are not reflecting doom and gloom for the economy.

"Unlike in Asia and Europe, the U.S. is relatively insulated from the threat of actual gasoline or oil shortages, and price increases are so far manageable," reporter Emily Peck explained. "That's good for the economy and for stock prices, and cold comfort to basically everyone else who is forced to pay more to fill up the tank."

Peck explained that the price shock for gasoline has yet to surpass the one from 2022, especially when accounting for inflation. It has also still only taken place over a relatively short period of time, so it cannot quite be called a sustained phenomenon.

Still, even as "gas makes up a small share of Americans' overall spending," consumers are still feeling major "whiplash" over these price surges, leading consumer sentiment metrics to plummet.

Data from March found that "the median lower-income household" was spending 4.2 percent of its income on gas, which was up from 3.9 percent in 2025. It is also well above spending levels from 2019.

"It's the latest chapter in the current vibecession, where the economy holds up, but no one feels particularly great about it," Peck added. "Higher gas prices can force people to make choices that they don't want to make — trading down on spending for groceries or restaurants or clothing," says David Tinsley, senior economist at the Bank of America Institute.

She added: "For the economy overall, those shifts may not be noticeable, as people keep spending levels the same. But for individuals, it stinks."

While the current inflation is not yet at the level of 2022, Peck noted one key reason why consumers are less likely to be able to handle it now. In 2022, average wages were on the rise while prices climbed. Now, on the other hand, "wages and salaries grew at just 1 percent for low-income households" in March, according to Bank of America.

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