Bitcoin fell to $58,075, hitting cycle lows as analysts warn the downtrend may not be over

After a brief recovery at the start of the month, Bitcoin lost momentum again this week, dropping to as low as $58,075 and marking its lowest level within the current market cycle. While the short period of strength had initially fueled bullish expectations, this outlook proved short-lived as sellers regained control.

Recovery attempts prove unsustainable

On June 5, Bitcoin was trading near $59,100 before jumping sharply to $64,185. The rise continued, with the cryptocurrency reaching $67,248 by June 15. However, selling pressure intensified at these levels, triggering a sharp reversal as Bitcoin fell back toward the $58,000 zone.

At press time, Bitcoin was hovering around $60,300 and continued to register losses across multiple timeframes. The cryptocurrency is down roughly 2.35% on the day, 21% over the past month, and about 31% since the start of the year. This ongoing slip points to persistent selling pressure in the market.

Technical analysis of the daily chart shows that after losing a key support level, Bitcoin experienced a clear breakdown. Attempts to reclaim this level fell short, confirming the continuation of the prevailing downtrend structure.

Technical indicators confirm the downtrend

Bitcoin’s failure to rise above previous support zones and key exponential moving averages is seen as a sign of sustained weakness in both the short- and medium-term outlook. This suggests that downward pressure remains an overwhelming force in the broader price structure.

Momentum indicators also show that, despite brief attempts at recovery, bearish pressure continues. Analysts say the most recent upward move gave the impression of a trend reversal, but technical signals did not confirm this, framing it instead as a classic bull trap.

The popular technical metric known as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) also showed a hidden bearish divergence during the attempted recovery. Historically, this pattern has suggested the prevailing downtrend could persist. The RSI is a key tool for measuring the speed and strength of price moves.

On-chain data indicates the bottom may not be in

Ki Young Ju, founder of on-chain data platform CryptoQuant, stated that Bitcoin has not yet reached a cyclical bottom. Drawing attention to the four-year moving realized price risk-reward ratio, Ki Young Ju noted that the current price remains above the realized price—a metric reflecting the average cost for holders. CryptoQuant tracks on-chain data to analyze market behaviors in cryptocurrencies.

Historically, market bottoms have formed when Bitcoin moved closer to its realized price. This dynamic has yet to develop in the current cycle, Ki Young Ju observed, suggesting that if it does not happen, it could mark an atypical market structure.

Meanwhile, CryptoQuant analyst Zizcrypto highlighted that the metric tracking the realized price change among short-term holders turned negative in mid-March and continued to fall in June, reaching about minus 24% as of June 23. This suggests short-term traders are now underwater compared to last year’s average cost, reflecting weaker momentum from new buyers.

In comparing the current decline to past market resets, Zizcrypto noted that similar indicators showed drops ranging between 55% and 65% during previous cycles. While the present decline is more limited, short-term momentum has yet to recover, adding to the cautious sentiment in the market.

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