Bitcoin Market Structure Points To ‘Ongoing Stress’, Not Final Capitulation – Analyst

Bitcoin has slipped below the $70,000 level, a move that reflects growing selling pressure and rising market anxiety. The break of this psychological threshold has intensified volatility, with short-term participants reacting quickly to downside momentum. Analysts note that the current environment is defined less by macro headlines and more by internal market structure, particularly the behavior of long-term holders.

According to insights shared by On-chain Mind, Bitcoin price alone rarely defines a market bottom. Instead, the key signal tends to come from holder behavior — specifically, whether long-term investors begin to show signs of stress. Historically, these participants are the least reactive cohort, often absorbing volatility rather than amplifying it through rapid selling.

When long-term holders move into widespread unrealized losses, however, the dynamic changes. Such conditions have frequently coincided with the late stages of bear markets, when conviction weakens and broader capitulation becomes possible. This phase does not guarantee an immediate reversal, but it often signals that structural exhaustion is developing.

Long-Term Holder Risk Still Below Historical Capitulation Levels

On-chain Mind further highlights that long-term holder risk has historically played a decisive role in identifying late-stage bear market conditions. Previous cycles show clear peaks in this metric: roughly 95% in 2015, about 83% in 2019, near 70% during the COVID crash, and around 85% in the 2022 downturn. These spikes typically reflected widespread unrealized losses among long-term investors, signaling deep structural stress across the network.

Historically, once this indicator rises above the 55–60% range, the bottoming process tends to accelerate. At those levels, even the most patient holders begin to experience meaningful pressure, often coinciding with the final phases of capitulation. This does not necessarily mark the exact price low, but it has frequently preceded stabilization and eventual recovery.

Currently, however, the metric sits closer to 37%, well below prior capitulation thresholds. This suggests that while market stress is evident, conditions may not yet reflect the full-scale exhaustion typically associated with durable cycle bottoms. If the pattern of diminishing peaks continues, a move toward the 70% region would indicate that even strong hands are under substantial pressure — historically a prerequisite for a more structural and lasting market low.

Bitcoin Breaks Key Weekly Supports As Downtrend Accelerates

Bitcoin’s weekly structure shows a clear deterioration in momentum after the rejection from the $120K–$125K region, with price now trading near the $69K zone. The latest breakdown pushed Bitcoin decisively below the 50-week moving average (blue) and the 100-week average (green), levels that had previously acted as dynamic support throughout the prior uptrend. Losing both signals a shift from a corrective pullback to a more structural downtrend phase.

The 200-week moving average (red) remains well below the current price, suggesting the broader macro trend is not yet in deep bear-market territory. However, the speed of the decline and expanding bearish candles indicate aggressive distribution rather than orderly consolidation. Volume spikes accompanying recent downside moves reinforce the interpretation of forced selling and liquidation activity.

From a technical standpoint, the $70K region has transitioned from support into resistance after the breakdown. Failure to quickly reclaim this level would increase the probability of further downside exploration, potentially toward historical demand zones in the low-$60K area. Conversely, stabilization above this region with declining sell volume could signal exhaustion among sellers.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com