The Federal Reserve kept its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28, 2026, pausing six weeks after its September hike.Two officials, Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, The Federal Reserve kept its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28, 2026, pausing six weeks after its September hike.Two officials, Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack,
Fed Holds Rates at 3.75%–4.00% in a 10–2 Vote: How QQQ, SPY and Bitcoin Reacted
The Federal Reserve kept its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28, 2026, pausing six weeks after its September hike.
Two officials, Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, dissented in favor of another quarter-point increase.
Markets now see a December hike as likely: CME FedWatch priced an 85.0% chance after the close, up from 78.3% a day earlier, Reuters reported.
The S&P 500 rose 0.28% and the Nasdaq Composite 0.27%, and on MEXC the bigger moves in QQQ and SPY contracts came after the closing bell, when Microsoft and Alphabet reported.
Key Takeaways
- Decision: The FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.75%–4.00% by a 10–2 vote, with Cook and Hammack preferring a 25-basis-point hike.
- Statement: Growth was upgraded to a "strong pace," and the Fed said it will wait for more information before deciding its next move.
- December: Chair Kevin Warsh did not commit to a hike, but futures moved toward one, with odds rising to 85.0%.
- Meeting schedule: Warsh said one 2027 meeting will become a strategy session with no rate decision, leaving seven rate-setting meetings.
- Markets: Stocks closed slightly higher, the two-year Treasury yield slipped to 4.722% and the dollar index fell 0.2%.
- MEXC reaction: From 1:55 p.m. ET to the 4:00 p.m. close, QQQUSDT rose 0.38%, SPYUSDT 0.08% and BTCUSDT 0.89%; after the bell, QQQUSDT gave back 0.74% as Alphabet fell.
What Did the Fed Decide in October 2026?
The Fed left the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-3/4 to 4 percent, according to the FOMC statement.
The interest rate on reserve balances stays at 3.90%.
Cook and Hammack voted against the decision because they preferred to raise rates by a quarter point; Reuters noted it was Cook's first policy dissent.
The September 16 meeting had raised rates by a quarter point on a 12–0 vote.
What Changed in the Fed Statement?
The October statement is close to September's, with three edits that matter.
- Growth: economic activity is now described as expanding at a "strong pace," up from "solid."
- Removed: the sentence saying the September hike would support a timelier return to the 2% goal.
- Added: a line saying the accumulation of more information will help the Committee decide the appropriate policy stance.
The Committee kept its line that inflation remains elevated and that it "will deliver price stability."
It also kept describing productivity growth as strong and capital investment as robust, the same AI-era investment that Microsoft and Alphabet reported on a few hours later.
What Did Warsh Say About a December Rate Hike?
Warsh did not commit to a December move. He said the coming weeks would bring a lot of data that leaves the Committee better placed to decide, according to Reuters.
That calendar is crowded: the Q3 GDP report on October 29, the midterm elections on November 3, October payrolls on November 6 and October CPI on November 10.
September CPI, the last reading before the meeting, showed inflation at 3.7% from a year earlier, with core at 2.6%.
Warsh said politics played no role in the decision, and that he did not think the economy was too hot, although most colleagues disagreed with him.
He argued inflation can return to 2% without slower growth or job losses, and that higher rates are already tightening credit, Reuters reported.
Why Is the Fed Changing Its Meeting Schedule?
Warsh said the Fed will keep eight meetings a year, but some will focus on long-term strategy without a rate vote, Reuters reported.
- 2027: one strategy meeting and seven rate-setting meetings.
- 2028: two strategy meetings and six rate-setting meetings.
He did not say which meetings will change, and the Fed has not yet published a formal release; its 2027 calendar still lists eight regular meetings.
For traders, fewer rate-setting meetings mean fewer scheduled rate-decision days, and more weight on each one that remains.
How Did Markets React to the Fed Hold?
Wall Street ended slightly higher.
- S&P 500: up 0.28% to 7,743.97.
- Nasdaq Composite: up 0.27% to 26,549.85.
- Dow: up 0.19% to 52,475.10.
The two-year Treasury yield slipped 1.46 basis points to 4.722%, while longer-dated yields rose and the yield curve steepened after the press conference.
The dollar index fell 0.2% to 102.15, according to Reuters.
Oil stayed in focus: Brent settled 1% higher at $115.32 and US crude 3% higher at $102.78 after an attack on a Saudi refinery, keeping energy at the center of the inflation debate.
How QQQ, SPY and BTC Perpetuals Reacted on MEXC
Our Fed rate decision preview set four checkpoints for the night: the 2:00 p.m. statement, the 2:30 p.m. press conference, the 4:00 p.m. close and the 00:00 UTC funding settlement.
QQQUSDT, SPYUSDT and BTCUSDT 5-minute closes, indexed to 1:55 p.m. ET on October 28, 2026. Source: MEXC public futures API.
2:00 p.m. statement: the first reaction was small. Between the statement and the press conference, QQQUSDT dipped as much as 0.24% from 723.73 USDT and was back at 723.64 by 2:30 p.m. SPYUSDT was 0.08% lower and BTCUSDT 0.09% higher.
2:30 p.m. press conference: activity picked up as Warsh spoke. The 2:30 p.m. five-minute bar in QQQUSDT traded about 1.31 million USDT, ten times the hour before it. By the 4:00 p.m. close, QQQUSDT was up 0.38% from 1:55 p.m., SPYUSDT 0.08% and BTCUSDT 0.89%, at 81,544.7 USDT.
4:00 p.m. close: the larger move came from earnings. QQQUSDT jumped to 728.11 in the first five minutes after the bell as Microsoft rose, then fell to 721.05 by 5:00 p.m. as Alphabet dropped about 10%, a 0.74% slide from the close. SPYUSDT fell 0.29% over the same hour and BTCUSDT 0.31%.
Funding: QQQUSDT and SPYUSDT both settled at 0% at 00:00 UTC on October 29, unchanged from the previous settlement. Positive funding would have been a cost to longs; the derivatives market added no extra pressure either way.
On a Fed night, QQQ moved more after the close than in the two hours after the statement, which shows how much of the index now rides on a handful of megacap reports.
Following QQQ and SPY Through MEXC
MEXC lists QQQUSDT and SPYUSDT perpetual contracts that trade 24/7, so moves after US hours can be followed through the Asian session, as covered in this guide to trading stock futures on MEXC.
Unrealized PNL and liquidations use the fair price, not the last traded price; the difference between index price, fair price and last price matters most on event nights.
For eligible users considering share ownership, MEXC RealStocks is a separate route; check availability and supported securities directly.
Perpetual contracts do not confer shareholder rights and carry funding, leverage and liquidation risks.
FAQ
Did the Fed raise rates in October 2026?
No. The FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.75%–4.00% on October 28, 2026, by a 10–2 vote. Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack preferred a quarter-point hike.
Will the Fed raise rates in December 2026?
It is not decided. Warsh did not commit to a move, but CME FedWatch priced an 85.0% chance of a 25-basis-point hike at the December 8–9 meeting after the decision.
What changed in the October 2026 Fed statement?
The Fed upgraded growth to a "strong pace," removed the sentence explaining its September hike, and said more information will help it decide its next move.
How did QQQ and SPY react to the Fed decision?
QQQUSDT on MEXC rose 0.38% from 1:55 p.m. ET to the 4:00 p.m. close and SPYUSDT 0.08%. In the cash market, the S&P 500 closed up 0.28% and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.27%.
How did Bitcoin react to the Fed decision?
BTCUSDT on MEXC rose 0.89% from 1:55 p.m. ET to 4:00 p.m., to 81,544.7 USDT, then gave back 0.31% in the following hour as tech earnings hit stock futures.
How many FOMC meetings will there be in 2027?
The Fed will still meet eight times, but Warsh said one 2027 meeting will be a strategy session without a rate decision, leaving seven rate-setting meetings.
What is the FOMC interest rate decision?
It is the Fed's announcement of its target range for the federal funds rate after each FOMC meeting; our glossary explains the FOMC interest rate decision in more detail.
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