Prediction-Market

Prediction Markets are decentralized platforms where users trade shares based on the outcome of future events, ranging from elections to sports and crypto prices.By leveraging the "wisdom of the crowd," platforms like Polymarket provide highly accurate, censorship-resistant forecasting data. In 2026, these markets serve as a primary source of sentiment analysis and risk hedging. This tag covers the technology behind decentralized oracles, event-based liquidity, and the growing role of prediction markets in global information discovery.

907 Articles
Created: 2026/02/02 18:52
Updated: 2026/02/02 18:52
Prediction Markets Polymarket and Kalshi Assign Mixed Odds for Bitcoin’s Path Above $100K in 2025

Prediction Markets Polymarket and Kalshi Assign Mixed Odds for Bitcoin’s Path Above $100K in 2025

The post Prediction Markets Polymarket and Kalshi Assign Mixed Odds for Bitcoin’s Path Above $100K in 2025 appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. As of Sunday, Nov. 30, 2025, bitcoin is priced at $91,482, and odds from prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi show traders expecting potential gains but keeping their expectations firmly tethered to earth. As 2025 Nears the End, Prediction Market Odds Get Firmer Bitcoin is trading at $91,482 on Sunday, Nov. 30, 2025, and prediction markets […] Source: https://news.bitcoin.com/prediction-markets-polymarket-and-kalshi-assign-mixed-odds-for-bitcoins-path-above-100k-in-2025/

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Kalshi Traders Price Bearish Odds on $100K Bitcoin Rebound in 2025

Kalshi Traders Price Bearish Odds on $100K Bitcoin Rebound in 2025

The post Kalshi Traders Price Bearish Odds on $100K Bitcoin Rebound in 2025 appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Key Notes Bitcoin price rebounded 17% this week but failed to break above the $95,000 resistance despite renewed ETF inflows. Prediction markets turned bearish after Kalshi’s market-manipulation lawsuit, with traders cutting odds of Bitcoin price retaking $100,000 before the end of 2025. BlackRock’s $117 million outflow and muted whale activity, including Strategy’s pause in weekly purchases, signal weakening bullish conviction. Bitcoin price rebounded 17%, moving from lows near $82,000 on November 21 to graze the $93,000 level on November 28. Bitcoin ETFs recorded a combined $221 million in net inflows between Nov. 25 and Nov. 28. Still, despite closing Friday with a modest $74 million net-positive session, BTC failed to advance beyond the key $95,000 resistance. Blackrock’s $117 million outflows of Friday stand out despite $74 million net inflows on Friday, Nov 28 | Source: FarsideInvestors BlackRock’s heavy outflow of $117 million stood out. As the world’s largest asset manager, its positioning often sets the tone for other institutional investors globally. Strategy (MSTR) Bitcoin purchase history Aug 11 to Nov 17, 2025 | Source: Bitbo.io Further underscoring the cautious stance among Bitcoin whales, Strategy Inc. made no purchases last week, ending a 14-week run that began in August. According to Bitbo data, the Michael Saylor-led firm confirmed its last buy on Nov. 17, when it acquired 8,178 BTC for $836 million, lifting total holdings to 649,870 BTC. Bitcoin’s weak momentum is also reflected in the prediction markets, where Kalshi now faces a major lawsuit over market manipulation and accusations of betting against its own users. Intraday Kalshi order books on Nov. 29 showed traders pricing lower odds of Bitcoin reclaiming $100,000 before the end of 2025, with markets increasingly leaning towards a close below $80,000. Kalshi odds on Bitcoin price rebounding to $100,000 in 2025 drops 11% on Nov 29…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Bitcoin Hyper Price Prediction for 2026: 87% Odds of December Rate Cut Fuel Market Rally as DeepSnitch AI Races Toward Stage 3

Bitcoin Hyper Price Prediction for 2026: 87% Odds of December Rate Cut Fuel Market Rally as DeepSnitch AI Races Toward Stage 3

The post Bitcoin Hyper Price Prediction for 2026: 87% Odds of December Rate Cut Fuel Market Rally as DeepSnitch AI Races Toward Stage 3 appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Crypto markets are rallying as Polymarket bettors now see an 87% chance of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December. This surge in optimism is lifting crypto-linked stocks and digital assets alike. As liquidity returns, investors are re-evaluating the Bitcoin Hyper price prediction and hunting for high-growth opportunities.  One project, DeepSnitch AI, is what many consider to be the perfect opportunity. Its presale has surged past $622,000 raised, with the token price currently at $0.02527, a 65% gain for early investors. With the presale approaching Stage 3, the chance to enter at this price point is closing fast. Polymarket predicts 87% chance of December rate cut  Crypto-linked stocks and assets rose in value on November 28th as prediction-market odds of a December interest rate cut surged to 87% on Polymarket, the highest level seen this month. This bullish sentiment is driving capital back into the market. Leading the rally were US-listed Bitcoin miners Cleanspark, Riot Platforms, and Cipher Mining, all of which posted double-digit gains over the past five days.  Circle, the issuer of USDC, also jumped nearly 10% in early trading, while Michael Saylor’s Strategy and Coinbase saw more modest increases. Bitcoin itself is up around 7% on the week, recovering from a dip to $82,000 on November 21. This renewed strength is directly tied to the macroeconomic outlook. A rate cut typically lowers the cost of borrowing and encourages investment in risk-on assets like cryptocurrency. Which projects offer the best returns? DeepSnitch AI: Beat the stage 3 price jump as January launch approaches The macro environment is perfect: rates are likely to come down, and “risk-on” appetite is returning. This is the signal to move into high-utility, early-stage projects. DeepSnitch AI is an excellent opportunity. Here is the reality: The presale is moving fast. With over $622,000…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
New Lawsuit Challenges Kalshi’s Sports Betting Operations

New Lawsuit Challenges Kalshi’s Sports Betting Operations

The post New Lawsuit Challenges Kalshi’s Sports Betting Operations appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Plaintiffs say Kalshi ran unlicensed sports betting disguised as a regulated exchange. Suit claims users unknowingly wagered against market makers tied to Kalshi’s affiliate. Kalshi denies wrongdoing, calling the allegations competitor-driven and incorrect. Kalshi Inc. is facing a new legal challenge as seven users of its prediction-market app have filed a proposed class action in New York, alleging that the firm operated unlicensed sports betting markets while presenting itself as a federally regulated exchange. The complaint, submitted on Wednesday, adds to the mounting scrutiny surrounding Kalshi’s sports-related event markets and questions the company’s disclosures about how trading activity is structured on its platform. According to the filing, Kalshi promoted its sports markets as “legal sports betting” even though it does not hold gaming licenses in any U.S. jurisdiction. The complaint states that customers exercised wagers on outcomes such as NFL game results and player performance totals, which plaintiffs characterize as equivalent to mainstream sports betting products. The lawsuit further alleges that Kalshi Trading, an affiliated entity, functioned as a market maker and played a central role in establishing pricing that could place users at a disadvantage. Plaintiffs claim that participants often matched against funds provided by a sophisticated liquidity provider rather than other individual users, a structure they argue mirrors betting against “the House.” Plaintiffs Seek Financial Recovery and Highlight Regulatory Tensions The seven named plaintiffs are seeking recovery of the money they wagered, as well as the possibility of triple damages. The complaint asserts that sports-related contracts represented nearly 90% of Kalshi’s trading activity in September, contrasting with the company’s broader positioning as a general event-driven exchange. It also alleges that the firm’s activities violated consumer-protection and gambling statutes across more than 30 states and Washington, D.C., including New York, California, and Florida. The case arrives shortly after a…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Prediction Marketplace Kalshi Slammed With Lawsuit Over Violations

Prediction Marketplace Kalshi Slammed With Lawsuit Over Violations

The post Prediction Marketplace Kalshi Slammed With Lawsuit Over Violations appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Key Notes A class action lawsuit has been brought against prediction marketplace Kalshi. The platform is being accused of illegal sports gambling and of manipulating the market. This comes only a few weeks after Kalshi raised $300 million in a Series D funding at a $5 billion valuation. Kalshi is facing a lawsuit for its involvement in illegal sports gambling and for allegedly manipulating the market. It allegedly advertised itself as providing “legal sports betting” even though it does not possess any gaming license in any US state. This new class action comes as the company records significant growth in its valuations and major funding achievements. Illegal Practices Found Within Kalshi Prediction Markets Popular prediction marketplace Kalshi has been accused of getting involved in illegal sports gambling and market manipulation. As a result, a class action has been filed against the company, per a Bloomberg report. It allegedly ran an unlicensed sports betting operation and advertised itself as providing “legal sports betting.” Meanwhile, it did not hold a gaming licence from any US state. Another complaint raised against Kalshi is that it creates betting lines in such a way that puts customers at a disadvantage. Precisely, customers face off against money provided by a sophisticated market maker on the other side of the ledger when they place bets on Kalshi. This way, “market makers make it possible for consumers to place illegal, unregulated wagers against the House,” the plaintiffs stated. Kalshi has outrightly denied all of the accusations brought against it, describing them as baseless. It even claims to operate only as a federally regulated derivatives exchange under the watch of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Kalshi Celebrates Another Milestone Coincidentally, this comes as Kalshi registers great growth in its valuations and major funding achievements. At the beginning of…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Kalshi Faces Lawsuit Alleging Illegal Sports Betting and Market Manipulation

Kalshi Faces Lawsuit Alleging Illegal Sports Betting and Market Manipulation

The post Kalshi Faces Lawsuit Alleging Illegal Sports Betting and Market Manipulation appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Crime Kalshi, one of the fastest-growing players in the prediction-market sector, is facing a proposed class action that accuses the company of operating an unlicensed sports gambling service and manipulating market conditions. Key Takeaways  Kalshi is facing a lawsuit accusing it of illegal sports gambling and market manipulation. The company rejects the claims, saying it is a CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange and that the lawsuit is competitor-driven. The dispute comes during rapid growth, including a $1B raise, soaring trading volume, and a new Coinbase USDC custody partnership. The legal filing comes at a time when the firm is expanding rapidly and securing large funding rounds. The complaint alleges that Kalshi’s platform functions as a sportsbook without holding state gaming licenses and claims that customers are disadvantaged because market makers — described in the suit as effectively “the House” — sit on the opposite side of trades. Plaintiffs also argue that the company advertises its service as “legal sports betting,” which they say misleads users. Kalshi disputes the accusations. In a public statement, founder Luana Lopes Lara said the company operates only as a CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange, not as a gambling platform. She also stated that the lawsuit was encouraged by a competitor and misrepresents how event-driven markets work. According to Lara, liquidity on Kalshi is provided peer-to-peer, and any participant can supply it. The dispute highlights a much broader issue in the industry: how prediction markets should be regulated. A similar situation previously occurred at Polymarket, which in 2022 agreed to stop serving U.S. users following a settlement with the CFTC. Earlier this year, Polymarket returned to the domestic market by purchasing an exchange and clearinghouse. Rapid expansion raises visibility The lawsuit arrives during a period of strong growth for Kalshi. The company recently raised $1 billion, valuing it at $11…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Is Kalshi Manipulating Prediction Markets? Platform Hit With Lawsuit Over Violations

Is Kalshi Manipulating Prediction Markets? Platform Hit With Lawsuit Over Violations

The post Is Kalshi Manipulating Prediction Markets? Platform Hit With Lawsuit Over Violations appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Kalshi has been accused of illegal sports gambling and manipulating the market. This comes as the company sees great growth in its valuations and major funding achievements. Kalshi Hit With Lawsuit Over Alleged Market Manipulation According to Bloomberg, the platform has been hit with a proposed class action that claims the company ran an unlicensed sports betting operation.  The complaint claims that the platform advertises itself as providing “legal sports betting” even though it does not have gaming licenses in any U.S. state. It also alleges Kalshi Trading creates betting lines in a way that puts customers at a disadvantage. “When consumers place bets on the platform, they face off against money provided by a sophisticated market maker on the other side of the ledger,” the plaintiffs said. “Market makers make it possible for consumers to place illegal, unregulated wagers ‘against the House.’” However, the firm says it operates only as a federally regulated derivatives exchange under the watch of the CFTC. The company’s founder Luana Lopes Lara shared a public statement to deny the claimes. She said that the lawsuit was cooked up by their competitors. Lara also mentioned that the claims are based on not knowing how event markets work. “This account and others are being paid by our competitor to amplify a baseless lawsuit. The allegations are false, and reveal a fundamental – and perhaps intentional – misunderstanding of how these markets work,” she said. She said that the platform is peer-to-peer exchange where any participant can provide liquidity.  Polymarket also faced something similar to this. That firm was not allowed to serve U.S. users in 2022 because of a settlement with the CFTC. In September, Polymarket won back the ability to operate domestically by buying a derivatives exchange and clearinghouse. Kalshi’s Growth Draws in Attention The…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Crypto Institutions Invest Nearly $25B in 2025 as Market Matures, With CEX, Prediction Markets, and DeFi Driving Inflows

Crypto Institutions Invest Nearly $25B in 2025 as Market Matures, With CEX, Prediction Markets, and DeFi Driving Inflows

The post Crypto Institutions Invest Nearly $25B in 2025 as Market Matures, With CEX, Prediction Markets, and DeFi Driving Inflows appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. COINOTAG News, citing DL News, reports that institutional investment in crypto for 2025 neared $25 billion, a 150% year-over-year rise that underscores mounting capital commitment to the sector. Leading buyers include Paradigm and Sequoia Capital, alongside Wall Street giants BlackRock, JPMorgan Chase, and Goldman Sachs, illustrating broad cross-sector demand for crypto exposure. DefiLlama data show demand concentrated in three lanes: centralized exchanges ($4.4B), prediction markets ($3.2B), and DeFi platforms ($2.9B), highlighting where capital is flowing within the ecosystem. Industry thinkers frame this shift as maturation rather than weakness: Knecht notes that capital is chasing projects with clear regulatory transparency and operational resilience, aligned with traditional finance standards. Chong sees funds gravitating toward revenue‑positive players with sustainable economics, signaling rational fundraising. Verbitskii argues that capital tends to flow into foundational infrastructure first, mirroring historic technology cycles. Source: https://en.coinotag.com/breakingnews/crypto-institutions-invest-nearly-25b-in-2025-as-market-matures-with-cex-prediction-markets-and-defi-driving-inflows

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
OKX Ventures Explores Evolving Crypto Prediction Markets

OKX Ventures Explores Evolving Crypto Prediction Markets

The post OKX Ventures Explores Evolving Crypto Prediction Markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Iris Coleman Nov 28, 2025 11:00 OKX Ventures delves into the growth and development of crypto-native prediction markets, highlighting regulatory advancements and technological shifts in the Web3 space. The landscape of crypto-native prediction markets is undergoing a transformative evolution, driven by regulatory advancements and the integration of Web3 technology, according to OKX Ventures. As regulatory clarity improves and institutional capital continues to flow into this sector, prediction markets are transitioning from niche experiments into crucial tools for pricing information. Origin and Development of Prediction Markets Prediction markets, which aggregate collective intelligence to forecast events, have been around since the late 1980s. The Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) set the stage in 1988 with its innovative concept of ‘price equals probability,’ demonstrating high predictive accuracy in the U.S. presidential election. Despite regulatory challenges over the years, platforms like Betfair and Intrade emerged, although their growth was often hampered by compliance issues. In recent years, the approval of platforms like Kalshi by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has marked a significant regulatory milestone. This, coupled with the adoption of blockchain and smart contracts, has enhanced the reliability and efficiency of these markets, reducing operational barriers and censorship risks. Market Growth and Platform Strategy Analysis The prediction market sector, particularly in 2025, has witnessed substantial growth, partly fueled by the U.S. election and increased institutional participation. The market has evolved from event-driven activities to more consistent financial trading, with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi dominating the space. Polymarket, known for its decentralized approach, has maintained high user retention through category expansion beyond political events to include sports and crypto assets. Kalshi, on the other hand, has leveraged its regulatory compliance to achieve significant growth, surpassing Polymarket in trading volume by mid-2025. The platform’s ability to…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Polymarket Shows 87% Chance of December Fed Cut; Crypto Stocks Move Higher

Polymarket Shows 87% Chance of December Fed Cut; Crypto Stocks Move Higher

The post Polymarket Shows 87% Chance of December Fed Cut; Crypto Stocks Move Higher appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Several crypto-linked stocks climbed on Friday as prediction-market odds of a December rate cut surged to 87% on Polymarket, the highest level this month. Three US-listed Bitcoin miners led the rally, with Cleanspark, Riot Platforms and Cipher Mining all rising in the session and showing double-digit gains over the past five days. Probability of a US rate cut in December. Source: Polymarket Yahoo Finance data showed Circle, the issuer of USDC, jumped nearly 10% in early trading, while Michael Saylor’s Strategy and Coinbase notched more modest increases at the time of writing. Bitcoin (BTC) was also up around 7% on the week, after dropping to around $82,000 on Nov. 21, according to CoinGecko data. Top 10 Bitcoin mining stocks. Bitcoin Mining Stock Much of the volatility in prediction-market pricing this month has been driven by comments from Federal Reserve officials.  On Oct. 29, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said a December cut was “not a foregone conclusion,” a remark investors took as hawkish — which means the Fed could delay rate cuts and keep conditions tight. Polymarket odds slipped from 89% the day before to as low as 22% by Nov. 20. Sentiment shifted on Nov. 17 after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the central bank should consider cutting rates next month, arguing that “the labor market is still weak and near stall speed” and that inflation is now “relatively close” to the Fed’s 2% target. Related: Kalshi, Polymarket traders bet Supreme Court will curb Trump’s tariff powers Prediction markets expand as demand surges Prediction markets, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, which enable bettors to wager on the outcomes of real-world events, have expanded their reach and influence this year. On Nov. 13, Polymarket inked a multi-year agreement with TKO Group Holdings to serve as the official prediction-market partner for the…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews