US October 2026 PPI Preview: 0.4% Forecast & PCE Impact

 

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the October 2026 Producer Price Index (PPI) report tonight, Friday, November 13, 2026 at 21:30 Singapore Time (08:30 a.m. EST / 13:30 UTC), with consensus forecasts projecting seasonally adjusted final demand headline PPI to cool to 0.4% month over month (down from 1.3% in September) while rising to 6.6% year over year on base effects (up from 6.3%), and core PPI excluding food and energy to slow to 0.3% month over month (down from 0.7%) while holding at 5.0% year over year. Because Tuesday's hotter-than-expected October Consumer Price Index (CPI) print (+0.4% headline MoM and a third straight +0.3% core MoM gain) already pushed interest-rate futures to price a 90.8% probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike and a 9.2% probability of a 50-basis-point hike on December 9, the primary market catalyst tonight is not the energy-led pullback in headline goods, but whether PPI service sub-components that feed directly into the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index—specifically portfolio management fees, airline passenger services, and hospital care—confirm or cools upstream inflation persistence.

 

 

 

Tonight's wholesale inflation report arrives as the third leg of November's macro data sequence following the 165,000 October nonfarm payrolls beat on November 6 and the upside October CPI surprise on November 10. On the release calendar, the end of U.S. Daylight Saving Time on November 1 shifted the standard 08:30 a.m. Eastern release one hour later for international desks from 12:30 UTC (20:30 SGT for the September PPI report on October 15) to 13:30 UTC (21:30 SGT tonight). Methodologically, unlike October CPI—where BLS omitted official 12-month percentage changes due to the autumn 2025 survey collection lapse—the PPI program publishes both seasonally adjusted monthly changes and unadjusted 12-month changes alongside systematic four-month revisions to prior reports (May through August and September). While a ~10.9% drop in WTI crude oil across October's price-collection reference window is set to reverse September's 10.8% final demand energy spike, final demand services (68.3% of total final demand weight) jumped 0.8% month over month in September and narrow core PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services rose 0.5% month over month (+5.0% YoY). Building on the structural framework from our September US PPI preview, traders watching the 21:30 SGT print must separate volatile retail and wholesale trade margins from the specific healthcare, financial, and travel lines that govern the Fed's 2% PCE target.

 

 

According to the official BLS PPI release schedule, the Producer Price Index for reference month October 2026 is scheduled for publication on Friday, November 13, 2026 at 08:30 a.m. Eastern Standard Time (with the subsequent November 2026 PPI report scheduled for Tuesday, December 15, 2026 at 08:30 a.m. EST).

 

Traders across Asia and Europe must account for the one-hour time-zone shift caused by the end of U.S. Daylight Saving Time on Sunday, November 1, 2026, which moved Washington and New York from Eastern Daylight Time (EDT, UTC-4) to Eastern Standard Time (EST, UTC-5). While the local U.S. release clock stays fixed at 08:30 a.m. Eastern, the UTC release timestamp moves one hour later from 12:30 UTC to 13:30 UTC: whereas the September 2026 PPI release on October 15 crossed the wires at 20:30 Singapore Time (UTC+8), tonight's October 2026 PPI release crosses at 21:30 Singapore Time. Desks operating on October's local Asian clock schedule would enter positions an hour early.

 

Two macro developments over the past week frame how institutional desks will read tonight's numbers:

 

First, the PPI sampling window captures a sharp October pullback in crude oil and wholesale fuel costs. Whereas CPI samples retail prices across the entire calendar month, PPI primarily prices transactions during the week containing the 13th day of the month (specifically Tuesday, October 13, 2026). Across that October sampling window, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices fell approximately 10.9% and Brent crude declined roughly 3.8% compared with the September sampling period. That upstream energy relief was already partially echoed in the October CPI official release published on November 10, which showed unadjusted retail gasoline prices falling 0.7% in October (+1.0% seasonally adjusted, down from +9.1% in September).

 

Second, Tuesday's hot October CPI report left fixed-income and crypto markets with minimal tolerance for an upside core PPI surprise. As contextualized in our October US CPI analysis, October headline CPI rose 0.4% month over month (beating the 0.3% consensus) while core CPI rose 0.3% month over month (beating the 0.2% consensus and marking a third consecutive 0.3% monthly core reading on +0.3% shelter and +0.5% food gains). Because consumer inflation refused to cool in October, any sign in tonight's PPI that producer service costs are accelerating will feed directly into hawkish December FOMC expectations.

 

 

Inside the BLS Final Demand–Intermediate Demand (FD-ID) aggregation system, market commentary tracks two distinct definitions of "Core PPI." Knowing the exact weight and methodological difference between the two prevents misreading the 21:30 SGT headline flash.

 

Per the official BLS PPI Table 1 weights (using December 2025 relative importance weights), Total Final Demand PPI (weight 100.000%) measures prices received by domestic producers for goods (~29.1% weight), services (~68.3% weight), and construction (~2.6% weight) sold for personal consumption, private capital investment, government purchase, and export. From that headline basket, BLS publishes two core measures:

 

The first is Standard Core PPI—Final demand less foods and energy (commodity code FD 49104, carrying an 89.487% relative importance weight and tracked on St. Louis Fed FRED). This measure removes final demand foods (5.452% weight) and final demand energy (5.061% weight), but retains final demand trade services.

 

The second is Narrow Core PPI (often called "Super-Core" PPI)—Final demand less foods, energy, and trade services (commodity code FD 49116, carrying a 69.732% relative importance weight). Why does BLS publish a second core index that strips out final demand trade services (~19.755% weight)? Under PPI accounting rules, wholesalers and retailers are treated as suppliers of "trade services," and their price is measured as their gross margin (the dollar spread between selling price and acquisition cost). When wholesale fuel or commodity input costs drop rapidly in a given month before retailers cut shelf prices, retail gross margins temporarily spike—inflating Standard Core PPI (FD 49104) even though actual prices paid by consumers did not rise. Stripping out trade margins via FD 49116 isolates genuine producer service and core goods pricing.

 

The table below compiles the verified May through September 2026 trajectory alongside the October 2026 consensus forecasts, explicitly noting the forecast source and collection timestamp for each figure.

 

 

Examining the consensus numbers in the table above highlights an important arithmetic divergence: economists expect monthly Headline PPI to decelerate by 0.9 percentage points from +1.3% MoM in September to +0.4% MoM in October, yet they expect the 12-month annual Headline PPI rate to climb from +6.3% YoY to +6.6% YoY.

 

That divergence is driven by year-over-year base effects: when October 2026's projected +0.4% monthly gain replaces a much softer October 2025 monthly reading in the 12-month rolling window, the annual headline rate steps up by 0.3 percentage points to 6.6%—the highest annual reading since late 2022. Consequently, institutional desks will judge tonight's print primarily on whether monthly sequential momentum cools to +0.4% (headline) and +0.3% (core) rather than reacting blindly to the base-effect-driven 6.6% annual figure.

 

 

Why does the Producer Price Index frequently move Treasury yields and Bitcoin more than its wholesale label suggests? Because the Federal Reserve's official 2% inflation target is the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index compiled by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), not the CPI.

 

As explained in our guide to PCE price index methodology, while the BEA sources roughly 70% to 75% of the Core PCE basket from CPI sub-indexes, the remaining 25% to 30% of Core PCE is sourced directly from PPI sub-components published in BLS Table 2 (BLS PPI Table 2 details). Once CPI is released on Tuesday and PPI is released on Friday, Wall Street economists have nearly 100% of the inputs required to lock in their monthly Core PCE forecast two weeks before the official BEA release.

 

Specifically, macro desks parsing the September PPI official summary and tonight's October tables will immediately extract five PCE-feeding service lines:

 

 

Three analytical rules govern how traders should interpret those five lines at 21:30 SGT tonight:

 

First, watch for the October Medicare fiscal-year reset in hospital inpatient (51 2101) and outpatient (51 1104) care. Because healthcare carries nearly triple the weight in Core PCE (~20%) that it carries in Core CPI (~7%), and because annual Medicare reimbursement rate updates take effect every October 1, an October jump in PPI hospital care to +0.4% or +0.5% MoM flows straight into Core PCE even if headline PPI looks tame.

 

Second, check whether airline passenger services (30 22) retraces September's +5.0% MoM spike (+16.6% YoY). Because PCE uses the PPI airfare index rather than the CPI airfare index, a negative October reading in PPI airline passenger services following lower October jet fuel prices would provide a meaningful drag on October Core PCE transportation services.

 

Third, discount surprises driven purely by final demand trade services (FD 423). In September, final demand trade margins jumped 1.4% MoM (led by a 3.9% jump in machinery and vehicle wholesaling margins), accounting for nearly half of the entire 0.8% rise in final demand services. Because wholesale and retail gross margins do not enter the BEA's PCE calculation, an above-consensus +0.4% Core PPI print caused solely by wider retail fuel margins—while Narrow Core PPI (FD 49116) and the five PCE bridge components print at +0.2% or lower—is a false hawkish signal.

 

 

Heading into tonight's release, interest-rate expectations are heavily skewed toward further Federal Reserve tightening. Following the October FOMC rate decision on October 28—where the committee voted 10 to 2 to hold the federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4.00% while two officials dissented in favor of an immediate 25-basis-point hike—and subsequent remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller backing at least a 25 bps hike in December while leaving the door open to a larger move if inflation stays hot, CME Group FedWatch pricing as of November 12 assigns a 90.8% probability to a 25-basis-point rate hike (to 4.00%–4.25%) and a 9.2% probability to a 50-basis-point rate hike (to 4.25%–4.50%) at the December 8–9 FOMC meeting.

 

Across digital asset markets, that rapid buildup in hawkish rate pricing following Tuesday's CPI report weighed on spot prices: per YCharts Bitcoin USD data on November 13, 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) trades near $71,371.98 USD (after trading at $72,971.04 late on November 12 in New York and hovering near 88,596.02 SGD at 17:16 SGT on November 13), sitting beneath last Sunday's $73,477 flash-drop low and testing buyer conviction above the $70,000 psychological threshold.

 

 

As the scenario matrix illustrates, because Tuesday's October CPI already exceeded expectations, a softer PPI report tonight is unlikely to single-handedly talk the FOMC out of a standard 25-basis-point hike in December. However, cooling producer prices would immediately extinguish the 9.2% market probability of an aggressive 50-basis-point December hike and soften the projected 2027 tightening path—providing the exact macro relief valve needed for Bitcoin to defend the $70,000 to $71,372 support zone.

 

 

To avoid fragmenting coverage across duplicate URLs, this page serves as our pre-release analytical baseline and will be updated in place after 21:30 SGT tonight with the official October actuals, expectation spreads, and cross-asset reaction. When the BLS embargo lifts at 21:30 SGT (08:30 a.m. EST), traders should run through a four-point verification sequence:

 

First, check the three headline and core prints in Table A and Table 1 against consensus: Headline Final Demand PPI (vs. +0.4% MoM / +6.6% YoY expected; +1.3% MoM / +6.3% YoY prior), Standard Core PPI less foods and energy (vs. +0.3% MoM / +5.0% YoY expected; +0.7% MoM / +5.0% YoY prior), and Narrow Core PPI less foods, energy, and trade services (vs. +0.5% MoM / +5.0% YoY prior).

 

Second, separate goods deflation from service margins: verify whether final demand energy turned negative in October following the 10.9% WTI crude pullback (after jumping +10.8% in September), and check whether final demand services (+0.8% in September) was driven by non-PCE retail/wholesale trade margins (FD 423, +1.4% in September) or by underlying services less trade, transportation, and warehousing (FD 421, +0.3% in September).

 

Third, inspect the four-month historical revisions in Table A footnotes. Unlike CPI—where unadjusted monthly index levels are almost never revised—BLS systematically recalculates PPI data for four months after initial publication to incorporate late questionnaires submitted by surveyed producers (for instance, in the September report, August headline PPI was revised up from +0.4% to +0.5% MoM, touching May through August series). Any upward or downward revision to August or September PPI service lines immediately alters third- and fourth-quarter PCE inflation tracking.

 

Fourth, monitor the 21:30 to 21:45 SGT cross-asset confirmation once desks extract Table 2's five PCE inputs (portfolio management 40 2, airline passenger services 30 22, hospital inpatient 51 2101, hospital outpatient 51 1104, and physician care 51 1101). Market participants tracking how crypto order books digest tonight's print on MEXC can track live BTC price action to monitor minute-by-minute volume and support defense around the $70,000 to $73,500 corridor.

 

 

What actually warrants watching at 21:30 Singapore Time tonight is not whether headline PPI drops from September's 1.3% spike to 0.4%—October's 10.9% WTI crude oil decline virtually guarantees a softer headline monthly print—but whether the report validates or defuses the 9.2% market probability of a 50-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in December.

 

After Tuesday's October CPI printed at 0.4% headline and a third straight 0.3% core monthly increase, fixed-income traders stopped debating whether the Fed will hike by 25 basis points on December 9 (now priced at 90.8% on CME FedWatch) and began pricing tail risk around Fed Governor Waller's warning that continued inflation strength could warrant a larger move. That shift explains why Bitcoin pulled back from the mid-$74,000s earlier in the week to test $71,372 ahead of tonight's print.

 

Yet PPI contains two built-in statistical traps that routinely fool headline-reading algorithms during the first sixty seconds after 08:30 a.m. EST. The first trap is the base-effect divergence between monthly and annual headline PPI: an in-line +0.4% monthly gain will still push the unadjusted 12-month headline rate up from 6.3% to 6.6% simply because October 2025 drops out of the denominator. The second trap is retail and wholesale trade services margins (FD 423): when wholesale gasoline and diesel costs fall sharply in a single month, retail gas station margins temporarily widen in the PPI survey, inflating Standard Core PPI (FD 49104) even though retail pump prices actually fell 0.7% unadjusted in October.

 

Because the BEA excludes trade margins from the PCE price index and instead pulls portfolio management (40 2), airline passenger services (30 22), and hospital and physician care (51 2101, 51 1104, 51 1101) directly from Table 2, those five rows—alongside Narrow Core PPI (FD 49116)—are the only numbers that matter for the Fed's policy reaction function. Waiting fifteen minutes past 21:30 SGT to verify those five Table 2 inputs and check whether the 2-year Treasury yield holds or fades its initial move is the disciplined way to trade Bitcoin's $70,000 support test tonight.

 

 

 

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the October 2026 Producer Price Index (PPI) report today, Friday, November 13, 2026 at 08:30 a.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST, UTC-5), which corresponds to 13:30 UTC and 21:30 Singapore Time (UTC+8) tonight. Because the United States ended Daylight Saving Time on Sunday, November 1, 2026, this 08:30 a.m. Eastern release lands one hour later in UTC and Asian time zones than the September PPI report, which was released at 20:30 Singapore Time (12:30 UTC) on October 15.

 

 

According to the Dow Jones economist survey (collected November 12, 2026) and consensus calendars from FXStreet, CoinGabbar, and TokenPost (collected November 13, 2026), October Headline Final Demand PPI is forecast to rise 0.4% month over month (down from 1.3% in September) and 6.6% year over year (up from 6.3% in September). Standard Core PPI (final demand less foods and energy) is forecast to rise 0.3% month over month (down from 0.7% in September) and 5.0% year over year (unchanged from 5.0% in September).

 

 

Monthly Headline PPI is expected to cool sharply from 1.3% in September to 0.4% in October because September's surge was driven by a 10.8% spike in final demand energy (with gasoline up 20.3% and diesel up 21.0%), whereas WTI crude oil prices fell roughly 10.9% and Brent crude fell 3.8% during October's PPI reference window. However, the 12-month unadjusted Headline PPI rate is forecast to tick up from 6.3% to 6.6% due to base effects, as a low October 2025 base drops out of the 12-month calculation.

 

 

Standard Core PPI (FD 49104, representing 89.487% of total final demand weight) excludes food (5.452% weight) and energy (5.061% weight), but includes final demand trade services (~19.755% weight). Because BLS measures wholesale and retail "trade services" as gross margins (the spread between selling and acquisition prices), falling wholesale fuel costs can temporarily inflate retail margins (+1.4% MoM in September). Narrow Core PPI (FD 49116, 69.732% weight, which rose 0.5% MoM and 5.0% YoY in September) strips out food, energy, and trade margins to show underlying producer price trends.

 

 

Roughly 25% to 30% of the Bureau of Economic Analysis's Core PCE price index is sourced directly from PPI Table 2 rather than from CPI. The five primary PCE-linked PPI service components are portfolio management (Code 40 2, +0.4% MoM and +21.2% YoY in September), airline passenger services (Code 30 22, +5.0% MoM and +16.6% YoY in September), hospital inpatient care (Code 51 2101, +0.3% MoM and +4.1% YoY), hospital outpatient care (Code 51 1104, 0.0% MoM and +1.5% YoY), and physician and dental care (Codes 51 1101 & 51 1105). Wholesale and retail trade margins (FD 423) do not feed into PCE.

 

 

Following Tuesday's hotter-than-expected October CPI report (+0.4% MoM headline, +0.3% MoM core), CME FedWatch prices a 90.8% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike and a 9.2% probability of a 50-basis-point hike at the December 8–9 FOMC meeting. A hotter-than-expected PPI print (Core >= +0.4% MoM with firm PCE service inputs) would lift 50 bps hike odds and pressure Bitcoin (trading near $71,372 USD on November 13) toward its $70,000 support floor; an in-line or cooler print would extinguish 50 bps tail fears and support a relief bounce toward $73,477 and the $75,451–$75,820 cost-basis zone.

 

 

This article is for general information only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, legal advice, tax advice or any trading recommendation. Prices of crypto assets, equities and other related financial assets can move sharply, and the historical data, company disclosures and third-party expectations cited here cannot guarantee future results, while the consensus estimates and third-party projections referenced do not represent actual outcomes and will change with subsequent disclosures and revisions. Readers should conduct their own research and reach independent judgments based on their own financial circumstances, investment objectives and risk tolerance, consulting a qualified professional where appropriate. MEXC operates in compliance with applicable laws and regulations and does not provide services to residents of restricted jurisdictions, and the MEXC Crypto Pulse team accepts no liability for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of the information in this article.

 

 

MEXC Editorial Team provides the latest platform updates, product launches, trading feature guides, and industry insights. With a focus on developments in the global crypto market, it delivers transparent information, professional data, and forward-looking analysis. Both beginners and experienced traders can find firsthand updates, in-depth observations, and official announcements related to the MEXC ecosystem.

 

 

 

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